DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/01 11:12
Corn, Beans Higher at Midday
Corn is 7 to 8 cents higher, soybeans are 10 to 12 cents higher, and wheat
is 4 cents lower to 3 cents higher.
David Fiala,DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is mostly higher with the Dow 60 points lower. The
dollar index is 28 points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies
are flat with crude up a dime. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals
are weaker with gold down $30.
Corn trade is 7 to 8 cents higher at midday with trade building on the post
report bounce after the positive acre surprise, along with heat in the extended
forecast, with recent fund shorts being pressured. The forecast has limited
short-term issues for now with warmth expected to continue into early July with
a drier tinge for much of the belt. Ethanol margins are narrowed with the corn
rally, with the weekly report showing production 7,000 barrels per day, higher
and stocks down again by 870,000 barrels to get to the lowest stocks levels
since January 2017. The report showed stocks higher than expected at 5.22
billion bushels vs. 4.951 billion expected, but acres sharply lower at 92.0
million vs. 95.2 million expected. On the September contract, support is the
upper Bollinger Band at $3.46, with resistance the $3.53 3/4 highs.
Soybean trade is 10 to 12 cents higher with flat acres on the report and
spillover support helping to push soybeans higher with November trade around 15
cents higher. Meal is $5.50 to $6.50 higher, and oil is 15 to 25 points higher.
On the report, stocks were 1.399 billion bushels vs. 1.392 billion expected,
with acres unchanged at 83.5 million vs. 84.72 million expected. The ral is up
slightly against the dollar this morning. Crush margins have seen little change
in recent days. Weather should remain mostly a non-issue for soybeans for the
moment. The August soybean chart resistance is the $8.92 fresh high, with
support the upper Bollinger Band at $8.81.
Wheat is 4 cents lower to 3 cents higher at midday with Chicago trade
leading with spillover support, but trade remains at the lower end of the range
with harvest ongoing. Little change has been seen in European and Russian
weather with harvest expanding. The ruble remains in the recent range vs. the
dollar with U.S. export competitiveness slipping the last couple of days.
Kansas City is at a 54-cent discount to Chicago on the August, while
Minneapolis is back to a 22 cent premium. The report showed stocks slightly
higher at 1.08 billion vs. 980 million expected, and acres at 44.3 million vs.
44.72 million expected. The September Kansas City chart support is the lower
Bollinger Band at $4.21, and resistance the 20-day at $4.49.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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